Alberta is set to lose 31,000 construction jobs by 2019, with commercial construction and home renovations the only bright spots, according to a national labour forecast.
"The oil price decline is driving employment lower across all construction sectors," says BuildForce Canada's 2016-2025 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward forecast.
'Alberta has been through construction cycles before, but nothing this complex' - Rosemary Sparks, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada
In the oilsands alone, construction jobs will decline by 28 per cent from the peak in 2014 to 2020.
One bright spot in the short term is commercial building, where current project activity is expected to continue in 2016, before slowing in 2017, and growing in steady increments over the long term.
"Alberta has been through construction cycles before, but nothing this complex," said Rosemary Sparks, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada, a nationwide construction industry group.
"That's why it's crucial for industry to stay focused on recruiting young people and attracting and keeping those skilled trades that are, or will be in the most demand."
The report warns of a "skills vacuum" once the economy starts to recover in 2020, more than making up for current job losses.
"Oil sands job losses, an aging workforce, the departure of out-of-province workers and the ongoing demand for workers to sustain and maintain projects are all behind complex shifts in Alberta's construction workforce," said Sparks.
"The loss of as many as 36,000 skilled workers retiring this decade makes it even more challenging to replace that kind of experience," she added.
Bright spots
Even as Alberta's economy weakens, there is work in plant maintenance, shutdowns, turnarounds and outages for skilled trades such as boilermakers, pipefitters and specialty welders, the report says.
And home renovation work is set to grow by 1,900 jobs across the forecast period.
As for residential construction, 9,000 jobs are expected to be lost from 2016 to 2019, followed by a partial recovery that raises employment by 7,000 jobs to 2025.
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