Ball retention
It is merely an arbitrary celebration, but the end of the year can prove crucial in turning a season around. A year after Leicester found themselves bottom of the Premier League table at Christmas they reached the festive period this year on top of the pile.
2015 was a breakthrough year for them. Their tactic of using a deep defence and swashbuckling, blistering counter punches has taken the Premier League by storm. Might it inspire others to do the same in 2016?
Can Leicester hold on to top spot?
We have seen a trend in recent years of possession meaning less and less. No longer is keeping the ball a priority for so many teams, particularly when facing opponents against whom dominating possession is almost an impossible task.
Instead, teams are sitting back more, soaking up pressure whilst hoping that leaving as little space as possible behind their defence will be sufficient to stifle attacks.
Average possession of winning teams (corr to Dec 23)
| Season | Avg possession % of winning teams |
|---|---|
| 2011-12 | 52.8 |
| 2012-13 | 52.1 |
| 2013-14 | 52.1 |
| 2014-15 | 51.1 |
| 2015-16 | 49.2 |
Leicester’s success is no flash in the pan. It is part of a gradual decrease in possession held by winning teams.
This year saw West Brom account for the lowest possession share in any Premier League game – away to Manchester United – a match they won with only 20.3 per cent of the ball. Counter-attacking and resilience in defence are fast-becoming fine arts of the game.
Possession - Man Utd 0-1 West Brom (May 2015)
| Possession | |
|---|---|
| West Brom | 20.3 |
| Man Utd | 79.7 |
Part of that is the kind of direct play that Leicester have adopted. It is not long-ball football by any means, but they tend not to ‘waste’ much possession with too many sideways passes.
Formation
Next, could we see more teams going back to playing 4-4-2 in 2016? Two strikers had become rather an unfashionable tactic in recent years but Atletico Madrid nearly won the Champions League playing two up front and Leicester are top of the league having done so.
The emergence of Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo as the Premier League’s most devastating dovetailing front two could encourage others to follow suit, while Roy Hodgson may be tempted to play 4-4-2 with England given the form of Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane and the patent impotence of a lone Wayne Rooney.
Ighalo and Deeney have shown the benefit of playing two strikers
Doing so gives defenders something else to think about – perhaps something different to that which many of them have grown used to dealing with. It may be a while before we see ‘little and large’ combinations like Alan Shearer and Michael Owen or Niall Quinn and Kevin Phillips re-emerge but an increasingly glamourous 4-4-2 looks like to continue its resurgence into next year.
Width
With that, might we too see an increase in the use of traditional, speedy wingers? After a period in which it became the norm to use ‘inside forwards’ out wide, playing on what might have previously been considered the ‘opposite’ flank, the likes of Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Southampton are looking to get wingers to the byline and are putting in plenty of crosses with some success.
Palace have been particularly successful in this regard, utilising the pace and skill of Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha to pile pressure on opposition full-backs and - as a consequence - pull defences out of shape. This was well expressed in the 5-1 hammering of Newcastle, where Palace's attacks were spread almost equally between each flank - allowing Newcastle no respite whatsoever.
Contrast that to Manchester United, whose attacking woes have been well documented this season. In their home game against West Ham, they relied heavily on attacks down their left side, meaning the visitors were able to anticipate the danger more comfortably and overload their defence accordingly.
The end of big fees?
In the transfer market, fees will likely continue on the exponential trajectory that increased television revenue is ensuring, but we could see individual success stories encourage teams to follow less well-trodden paths.
Might the success of the likes of Alli encourage others to look to the lower leagues?
• Top 50 transfer targets in the January window
For all of the Kevin De Bruynes and Anthony Martials in the world, there is value to be found elsewhere.
Vardy and Dele Alli came from the lower leagues, while Kane was promoted from within. Hector Bellerin has been nurtured into one of the Premier League’s stand out full-backs and Riyad Mahrez was signed for a relative pittance from France. Ighalo cost Watford next to nothing.
Whether this will mean the Premier League’s biggest teams do likewise is another matter, but there is still the slightest chance that the age of ludicrous and bordering on thoughtless overspending may at least be a little less attractive.
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