There are some huge fixtures this weekend - Leicester v Northampton, the biggest derby in English rugby; Harlequins v Saracens, third versus first with loads of England match-ups; Bath’s Champions Cup trip to fellow moneybags Toulon.
Yet all those glamour ties are outweighed in importance by the game at the Madejski Stadium: London Irish v Newcastle, 12th versus 11th and a result that has the potential to shape the relegation dogfight. Given that we are only eight league games into the season, it is premature to say that this will decide who goes down. Both teams have a fairly decent scalp under their belt in Bath and Northampton respectively and I believe each side will pick up a few more wins before the end of the season.
London Irish should have won at Gloucester
But so much of survival depends on creating momentum. Newcastle could give themselves a little bit of breathing space and make it back-to-back wins. Irish, meanwhile, could, and probably should, have won at Gloucester last time out. A victory for Tom Coventry’s side will make that result seem unlucky in hindsight rather than symbolic of a team destined for the drop.
Worcester are not completely out of the woods. They have been playing better than their points tally suggests, which will still be a huge concern for Dean Ryan. The difference is that they have a discernible style and identity. They know who they are and what they are about. Same applies for the teams above them.
The same can not be said for Newcastle and Irish. The Falcons’ identity used to centre around being a really difficult place to go - the weather was terrible and the pitch would be frozen. However good a team you had, you knew you were in for a horrible day at the office going up there.
Kingston Park's 4G pitch helps other teams
Since they have got their new 4G pitch they have lost that hard edge. Teams go up now and it is more like a training run because of the pitch. Newcastle are struggling to figure out whether they are that really dogged, driving maul side or a team that plays running rugby, which is what their home pitch really demands.
Irish also appear to be in transition with a new coach in Coventry coming in. They made some big signings. Sean Maitland, Ben Franks and Matt Symons are quality additions. Yet when I watch them I don’t quite know who they are or what style of rugby they want to play yet. You don’t know what to expect other than quite a lot of mistakes.
Defensively they were all over the place in their early games. Even against Gloucester they looked vulnerable. The problem they have is that their tight-five guys too often end up defending the 13 channel, where they get exploited. They create too many corners and are not tight enough. They don’t work together and you have a lot of individuals shifting from side to side.
Irish have made some big-name signings
I also don’t think it is a coincidence that both teams have problems at fly-half. No other position is more pivotal to a struggling side than a reliable goalkicker and game manager. For Irish, Chris Noakes is a nice player but is not Premiership standard. Meanwhile, Dean Richards revealed his desperation by bringing Andy Goode out of retirement. Goode will be able to inject a bit of confidence and control, but it is still a signing that screams “panic”.
Where Noakes does excel is with his crossfield kicking and it is imperative that the Newcastle back three – Simon Hammersley, Alex Tait and Marcus Watson – be aware of that threat, particularly with Alex Lewington on the wing.
The key battle will be in the ability of Newcastle to stop London Irish picking up any tempo in their game. Irish were very good at the breakdown against Northampton recently, although there are no mugs in the Newcastle back row who will be looking to apply a lot of pressure on Noakes and Brendan McKibbin, the Irish half backs.
It would be bad for English rugby if Newcastle went down
It is going to be tight and horrible, but with home advantage I think Irish will come out on top. As for the question of who goes down this season, I believe Newcastle will fall into the Championship. That will be a crying shame, not just for Dean Richards or the North East but for the overall health of English rugby. Assuming Yorkshire Carnegie do not come up then that would leave Sale Sharks representing the whole of the north.
I have never been a proponent of ringfencing because I know the ambition of some of the clubs outside the Premiership. Some want to get promoted but in reality don’t because of the financial issues that go with it. Currently, you need a big benefactor to get promoted and stay up.
What you don’t want is a London Welsh situation where you come up, score no points, embarrass youselves and go straight back down. There has to be a balance and an open forum discussion. Premiership Rugbys need to sit down and ask them who wants to be in the Premiership, who can afford it, who has got the stadia. If not then go down that franchise route like they have in rugby league where you grant a team a three-to-four-year license. That still allows ambitious club to progress while giving the clubs in the league a chance to plan and develop.
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