First things first: you’re (almost certainly) going to pay the odds in January. If you need something, everyone knows it. If opponents know you are in need they will overcharge because selling will in turn leave them short.
Fulham and Leicester are among the teams to break their transfer record in recent years – on Kostas Mitroglu and Andrej Kramaric, respectively – with remarkably poor results. Between them, those two forwards – costing a combined £20 million – have three Premier League goals in a year and a half in England.
Most expensive January PL signings since 2011
| Cost | |
|---|---|
| Fernando Torres | 50 |
| Juan Mata | 37.1 |
| Andy Carroll | 35 |
| Wilfried Bony | 28 |
| Edin Dzeko | 27 |
| Juan Cuadrado | 23.3 |
| Luis Suarez | 23 |
| David Luiz | 21.3 |
| Nemanja Matic | 21 |
| Darren Bent | 18 |
Then there was the infamous January of 2011. Liverpool spent £58m on Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez and cashed in £50m when Fernando Torres moved to Chelsea. Suarez eventually became a brilliant signing but took a while to settle; the path from Eredivisie to Premier League is well-trodden and players usually need a while to find their feet.
The fee for Torres was arguably the most outlandish ever and proved to be a terrible misjudgement on Chelsea’s part, while Carroll was signed on the back of his first spell of Premier League form rather than top flight pedigree (more on that below).
£50m proved to be just a little over the odds
Juan Mata, Wilfried Bony, Juan Cuadrado and Chris Samba are just four more overpriced January transfers – who had decidedly mixed success – and could probably have been lured for cheaper in the summer. None had such immediate effect that their hefty winter fees could really be justified.
There are of course some outliers in the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho, both of whom were steals for Liverpool but bargains of that calibre are risks that happened to pay off.
Verdict: Be ready to pay over the odds, so only buy if you need to
Age
Essentially, buying too young in January rarely works. The pressure for an immediate impact is often simply too great and even the new-found idea of purchasing and then loaning straight back can end up failing.
Wilfried Zaha signed for Manchester United in January 2013, swiftly lost the support of his adoring Crystal Palace fans for the second half of the season and then failed to make any kind of impression at Old Trafford, instead farmed out to Cardiff on loan. He is now back at Palace probably regretting ever leaving.
Zaha ended up on loan at Cardiff
Kevin De Bruyne moved from Genk to Chelsea in January 2012 before going straight back on loan but has ended up at Manchester City via Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg. Chelsea barely showed any real belief in him.
The sheer level of expectation weighs heavy on youngsters and insufficient time to settle can be problematic. Dele Alli has become a success at Spurs but signing him in January was just to ensured he was tied down. He is a rarity in that he was signed to the Premier League from the lower divisions and has taken to it quickly. Generally, youngsters struggle.
Verdict: If you want to improve the first team, don’t bother with youth in January
Form
Form is temporary; class is permanent, as the adage goes. Nowhere else in football can form be as misleading and deceiving as in the effect it has on fees in the January transfer window.
For example, there is no doubting that Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez are both very good players but the fact that Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri now reckons ‘nobody can buy them’ in the winter window because ‘they don’t have the money’ is frankly ridiculous.
Mahrez's form has led to talk of an inflated fee
There would be no sense in Leicester selling their prized assets midway through the season but there is also every chance that neither player will go on to be a consistent performer worth in the region of the £40m fee that has been bandied about.
Similarly, Carroll may have been worth £35m to the Newcastle side for whom he was scoring freely, but he was worth nothing like that to Liverpool. The fact that he was in form affected his price tag.
Harry Kane has been allocated a similar price tag but he is still yet to prove that last season wasn’t just a purple patch. Nothing can disrupt a run of form like the weight of a hefty transfer fee.
Verdict: Beware. Form at one club is no guarantee of class at another.
Experience
It is rare for a player with no experience of life, football and pressure in England to take to the Premier League with ease when joining in January.
Mo Salah, Edin Dzeko, Suarez, Mitroglu and Kramaric are just a few that struggled for the rest of the season after their moves. They grew into their roles with varying success, but the fact remains that it is exceptionally difficult to adapt to both a new team and a new league mid-season.
Cisse fit straight in on Tyneside
The likes of Nikica Jelavic, Papiss Demba Cisse – who scored 13 goals in 14 games in his first six months at St James’ Park – and Arsenal’s Nacho Monreal and Gabriel show that it can be done but the success stories are far less frequent than those who struggle.
Sturridge, Gary Cahill, Darren Bent and Louis Saha, all with Premier League experience, have made recent January moves and had an effect straight away.
Verdict: Premier League experience preferable
Compatibility
Andy Carroll suited Newcastle; he did not suit Liverpool. Wilfried Bony was worth his weight in gold to Swansea; he is only a bit-part player for City. Wilf Zaha was a key Crystal Palace player but wasn’t the right fit at Old Trafford.
Carroll was not suited to Liverpool's style of play
Compatibility will always be a key consideration, but desperation in January can cause clubs to disregard the need for a player that fits their system rather than just looking to sign someone who is thriving at another club.
Verdict: Do your research
Nationality
There is very little in terms of a pattern here. Often English players do well, but there are striking anomalies, while Frenchmen tend to settle well perhaps thanks to a similar climate and a short journey home when they want it, but again that is by no means without exception. South Americans also fare rather well for the most part and eastern Europeans have trouble.
Verdict: Cross your fingers and hope for the best
Daniel Sturridge: an instant hit at Anfield
So, there are a few pointers to take into account when considering your January transfer targets but it is also worth bearing in mind that deals at this time of year are riddled with even more risk than normal.
Signings can provide much-needed reinforcement and depth but there remains a greater possibility than in the summer that players will fall by the wayside. Proceed into January with plenty of caution.
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